Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures head into the weekend 2 1/2 to 3 3/4 cents lower in the nearby months, Dec corn lost 6 3/4 cents on the week. The CFTC report this afternoon showed managed money spec funds still net short; however as of 10/15 it was only at 66,141 contracts making this now the 4th consecutive week where managed money has reduced their net short position for corn futures. Traders over estimated weekly corn export sales; the holiday delayed report from this morning indicated that for the week ending 10/10 corn saw 368,756 MT of export sales. That is up 29.6% compared to last week. Exports are still way behind last year, with the accumulated exports for MY through 10/10 at 2.637 MMT now 63.75% behind last year’s pace.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.91, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $4.02 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.09 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.15 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures closed up 2 1/4 to 2 1/2 cents on Friday, but were lower by 2 cents on the week. Soybean meal finished Friday’s session $1.70/ton higher, but still ended the week down by $2.30/ton. Soy oil was 39 points higher by Friday’s close and ended the day with a 3 point gain. As of Tuesday, managed money added 16,502 contracts to a long position, while simultaneously the short position was reduced by 26,026. That brought soybean futures to a net long position of 49,029 contracts, the highest net long position for that group since June 5th 2018. Managed money also reduced their net short position for soy meal for the 4th consecutive week. Soy oil’s trend also continued for the fourth consecutive week, as managed money increased their net long position to 43,457 contracts, the highest fund net long for soy oil since Nov 28th 2017. USDA’s weekly export sales report showed soybean export sales were 13.5% below last week, but were at the top of trade estimates with 1.600 MMT for the week ending 10/10. Soy meal export sales were on the low end of trader expectations with 152,939 MT. Soy oil export sales were reported at 3,952 MT.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.34, up 2 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.47 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.59 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.67 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $308.50, up $1.70,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.36, down $0.03

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are mixed at Friday’s midday. Winter wheat gained on the week, Chicago finished with a 24.3 cent gain and KC improved 13 cents over last week. MPLS finished Friday down by 7 1/2 cents, pushing it to 5.8 cents lower on the week. The export sales report indicated 395,122 MT of sales for the week ending 10/10; traders anticipated 250,000-500,000 MT. Chicago HRW net sales increased 8.17% over last week, and were 440.32% higher than the same week a year ago. HRW had a 41.6% share of the export sales, while Minneapolis HRS held a 36.9% share. The USDA reported 34,787 MT of SRW net export sales for the week ending 10/10, which was 8.8% of all wheat. All wheat accumulated exports are up to 9.437 MMT for the MY 26.88% ahead of last year’s pace and already 38.95% of the 2018/19 MY total.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.33 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.44 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle Oct futures were down by $1.925 at Friday’s close, however that couldn’t erase a wk/wk gain, as future contracts finished $1.025 higher on the week. Feeder cattle futures finish Friday down by $0.70 to $1.475 in the nearby contracts, Nov futures lost $0.60 over the week. Cash cattle traded at $107-108 today, and $173 in the meat. That was down $1-2. Managed money grew their CFTC net long position by 79.34% for cattle to 21,543 contracts. In feeder cattle futures managed money was net short 1,277 contracts as of 10/15. The 10/17 CME Feeder Cattle index saw another 45 cent increase, and is up to $145.60. USDA’s weekly export sales report showed a 7.7% decrease in wk/wk beef exports with 15,124 MT shipped. Net sales are on par, 0.27% lower, than the same week last year at 13,045 sales. Wholesale boxed beef prices narrow the ch/s spread to 25.00 at Friday’s closing. Choice boxes finished 7 cents lower to $218.04, with Select boxes showing a gain of $0.44 up to $193.04. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week, including tomorrow estimates, is 642,000 head. That is 10,000 head above the same week last year keeping the ytd ahead of last year’s pace by 280,000 head, at 26.5 million head.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $110.475, down $1.925,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.625, down $0.750,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $119.075, down $0.475,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.500, down $0.700

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.850, down $1.475

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.450, down $1.400

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures lost 17 1/2 to 35 cents in the front months, pushing Dec futures to $1.65 lower on the week. USDA reported 210,853 MT of pork export sales for the week ending 10/10, just shy of July 31st 2014’s record. Mexico was the biggest purchaser, with a 63% share (132,888 MT) of new sales for the week ending 10/10. The report also indicated that due to the 689% wk/wk increase, our accumulated export sales are already ahead of 2018’s yearly total, with 11 weeks left to add to this record marketing year accumulated total. USDA indicated this report included some delayed reporting. USDA estimated hog slaughter for the week ending 10/19 is at 2.726 million head, up 16,000 head from last week and 167,000 larger than the same week’s total from last year. The Year to date hog slaughter is 101.952 million head, outpacing last year’s slaughter by 3.61%. The CME Lean Hog Index was at $64.90 on Oct 16. The USDA pork carcass cutout value closed higher on Friday by $0.75 finishing the week at $77.03. The national average base hog value goes into the weekend down by $0.94 at $56.86. A trade team wrapped up discussions in Vietnam this afternoon, with official results for Monday. Ted Mckinney stated the Vietnamese hog herd is down by 20% (due to ASF).

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $67.950, down $0.200,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $77.475, down $0.175

APR 20 Hogs closed at $83.450, down $0.350

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Dec cotton futures gained 2.02% for a 129 point increases wk/wk, futures closed Friday up 18 to 53 points in nearbys. The CFTC reported this afternoon that cotton saw another reduction in managed money’s net short position, which as of Tuesday was 11,377 contracts. Cotton weekly export sales are up 9.33% compared to last week and were the highest since February, at 206,468 running bales. The cumulative sales for the market year are now at 9.135 million RB, only 0.22% below last year’s pace. The Cotlook A Index bounced up another 100 points on Oct to 75.00 cents/lb. The updated Adjusted World Price of cotton is now 55.26, up 1.36 from last Thursday’s AWP. Ted McKinney announced from Hanoi today via teleconference with reporters that at least $5 million in ag sales have been made, with official totals coming out Monday. Vietnam imports 54% of their approximate 7.3 Million bales in annual needs from the United States, totaling over $1 billion.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 65.17, up 18 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.8, up 29 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.3, up 41 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.66, up 53 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: [email protected]

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.