Ag Market Commentary

Corn is steady to lower at midday, from UNCH to down 1 1/2 cents. The USDA reported a private export sale of 245,872 MT of corn to Mexico under the daily reporting system with a 19/20 MY delivery. The market is trying to find additional buying interest, whether from ethanol, feed use or exports. USDA weekly corn export sales were reported at 546,115 MT for the week ending 11/28. Accumulated exports have reached 6.344 MMT with two days remaining in the first quarter. Census data for monthly corn exports showed that October corn shipments were 90.7 mbu, a 59.27% decrease from last October but up 13.59% from September.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.66, up 1/2 cent,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.75 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents

JUL 20 Corn closed at $3.85 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans are up again on Friday, the nearby futures are 5 1/4 to 5 3/4 cents higher so far. Soybean meal futures is $1.90/ton lower. Soy oil futures are up by 65 points at midday. China has issued tariff exemptions on American soybeans. Previously Chinese importers who applied for tariff exemptions were required to pay the tariff before receiving reimbursement, and this new announcement will remove that step. The announcement left out concrete numbers, leaving confusion on market implications, with the consensus being it was intended as a good faith move ahead of Dec 15th scheduled US tariff hikes. Census October soybean exports were 218.43 mbu, soybean meal shipments in October were an all time high for the month, at 1.033 MMT. The Export Sales reported showed bookings at 683,783 MT through the week ending 11/28. The latest data pushed the accumulated shipments to China up to 6.581 MMT.

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $8.90, up 5 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Soybeans closed at $9.04, up 5 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.18 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

JUL 20 Soybeans closed at $9.32 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $297.60, down $1.90,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.94, up $0.65

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat market is mostly lower at midday, with nearby Chicago futures falling 3 to 4 cents. KC wheat futures are firm in Dec deliveries, but other front months are as much as 5 1/2 cents lower so far. A similar story in the MGE HRS wheat market as Dec futures are posting a 4 1/2 cent midday gain, the other futures are 1 1/4 to1 3/4 cents lower. There are lots of news bites, but they don’t add up to much direction. The Philippines have issued an international tender to purchase 165,000 MT of feed wheat. Russian Ag ministry forecasts 2019 wheat crop at 75 MMT in their latest update. Canada estimates their wheat crop to be 32.348 MMT. France estimates soft wheat conditions to be 73% good/ex. Census data showed that 2.143 MMT (78.74 mbu) of wheat was exported during October. Weekly export sales data from the USDA showed that 228,086 MT of wheat sales in the week ending 11/28. Japan purchased 160,640 MT of wheat in their weekly MOA tender, with 91,220 MT from the US.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.29, down 3 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.20 1/4, unch,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.02 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

December Live cattle options expire today and first notice day for delivery is Monday. Live cattle futures are higher so far on Friday, albeit gains are limited to 27 cents in the front months Feeder cattle futures are back up at midday, with gains of 42 to 60 cents so far. The 12/04 CME Feeder Cattle index was $144.53, dropping by 66 cents. The USDA monthly beef and veal conversions were updated through October to show 248.594 million lbs of beef was shipped through the month. The yearly total, at 2.522 billion lbs, is the second highest on record through October, just 111 mlbs behind last year’s record. Japan was the destination for 22.03% of beef shipments in October, with near record shipments to South Korea for October, their share was 21.14% of total shipments through the month. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed this morning to tighten the spread to 16.89. Choice boxes showed a 42 cent drop, while select boxes were up 17 cents. Cash sales range from $117 to $119.50 on the week so far, with dressed sales ranging from $187-$189. USDA estimated the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 477,000 head through Thursday, compared to the same week last year which was at 482,000.

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $120.050, up $0.125,

FEB 19 Cattle closed at $124.875, up $0.275,

APR 20 Cattle closed at $125.225, up $0.075,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.175, up $0.625

MAR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $141.575, up $0.425

APR 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.725, up $0.600

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean hog futures are steady to 42 cents higher for Friday’s midday. The 12/04 CME Lean Hog Index was at 58.34, after an increase of 14 cents. China has issued more tariff adjustments for American pork. This has been reported as a streamline process regarding past purchase to lower unloading costs. The announcement left out hard numbers. October Exports to China from CENSUS were shown at 94.190 million lbs. The average October shipments to the country since 2010 were 37.266 mlbs. Every month since March has been above the average, and July and August monthly exports were all time records for the respected month. Total yearly shipments to China, through October, are 633.997 mlbs, with two months left to add. The all time record for yearly pork exports to China came in 2011 with 667.746 million lbs, but through October, 2019 is the all time high. This morning’s pork carcass cutout value was up another $1.06 and all but loin primal cuts were higher. USDA’s national average base hog price for 12/05 was $0.06 higher to $46.73. USDA’s weekly total estimate for FI hog slaughter through Thursday was 1.982 million head.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $61.575, unch,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $67.900, up $0.325

APR 20 Hogs closed at $73.925, up $0.425

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are making a triple digit move in pre weekend trading. The Monthly export data from Census showed cotton shipments for October were 731,611 480 lb bales, which is 19.6% below September shipments, but was an 11-year high for the month and the 3rd largest October total on record. The Seam reported 8,989 bales sold on Dec 5th, bringing the weekly total to 30,597 bales; last week the total was 35,384 bales sold. The 12/05 Cotlook A Index was regained all 65 points back up to 74.15. The weekly AWP was reduced to 55.97 cents/lb.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 0, unch,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.77, up 126 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 66.66, up 116 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 67.45, up 97 points

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: [email protected]

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